Tuesday, September 20, 2011

How To Adjust Your Fantasy Football In Week 3 - 2011 NFL

I was fortunate enough to win both of my games this week in both leagues to push my record to 2-0.  One game was won simply because Michael Vick got hurt before he could amass the stats that would have beaten me.

I was extremely tempted to change my lineup this week, but decided not to.  As much as I always want to tweak things, one of the golden rules of fantasy is to ride your horses until they stop performing.  With Brady, Welker, Beanie Wells, and Vincent Jackson on my team, I expect the horses to run for quite a while.

Another epic development in my keeper league this week was the loss of Jamaal Charles, who was placed on IR for a torn ACL.  Why is it epic? Because he was on my team two weeks ago until I traded him for Vincent Jackson.

My rationale for getting rid of Charles:

  • He may have run for a lot of yards, but he wasn't scoring touchdowns last year. I didn't think the Kansas City offense was going to do as well without Charlie Weis (who, I think, is a better offensive mind than Todd Haley).
  • This was the start of his fourth year in the NFL. I actually predicted that this year would be a down year for him (outside of the very top running backs, few manage to put together more than a couple good seasons back to back).  
  • I just had a really bad feeling about his coming year.  I couldn't explain it, but I actively shopped him.
Go Here to see my Week 2 Guide To Managing Your Fantasy Team

Now, for Week 3:  things are beginning to solidify a bit.  If that wide receiver or running back is performing well, continue playing them.  However, if you have someone on your team who has under-performed the past two weeks, it's time to either bench or cut them.  There's only two weeks until the first Bye week in the NFL, and you need to strengthen your depth.


Who To Drop/Bench:

  • Bench Michael Vick, obviously, until he is cleared to play.  Even once he's back, consider benching him his first week if you have a decent option.  A concussion is nothing to sneeze at, and he might be a little contact-shy the next time he's out there.
Who To Grab:
  • Cam Newton, but still give him another week or two before you start him.  Now that he's tasted the darker side of quarterback life (with his interceptions), let's see how he goes out against the next defense
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick - He's playing for a new contract, and the permanent starting job.  He's thrown 7 touchdowns so far against just one interception.  I'm sure he's starting in a lot of leagues.

Running Back:

Who To Drop/Bench:

  • Reggie Bush - Is the true Miami offense like the team that played Week 1 or Week 2?  Until they prove they're for real, keep Bush on the bench. I don't trust Chad Henne, and they also have rookie Daniel Thomas back from injury now. Bush's production will be spotty for the foreseeable future.
  • Knowshon Moreno - the oft-injured running back might be back for this week's game, but you always run the risk of him getting hurt again.
  • Ryan Grant - it seems clear that the Green Bay Packers prefer Starks.
Who To Grab:
  • Roy Helu - rookie for the Washington Redskins who got some good touches last week; do NOT forget that Shanahan is loyal to no one.  Last year (sometime due to injury), the Redskins rotated through several RBs. Helu's role should grow.
  • Daniel Thomas - unlikely to be available as most knew this guy when he got drafted by the Miami Dolphins;
Wide Receiver:

Who To Drop/Bench:
  • Mike Thomas - Jacksonville hasn't figured out how to use him yet, and the offense as a whole is struggling.  They're probably going to be looking harder at rookie Blaine Gabbert at QB, but wait until Thomas starts seeing more passes before you start him
  • Miles Austin - He's hurt for at least 3-4 weeks, so bench him.  Do NOT drop him no matter what. He will be important down the stretch.
Who To Grab:
  • Eric Decker - The Denver Broncos are very short on wide receiver (which is why Tim Tebow saw action on Sunday), and Decker looks to be the beneficiary of those losses.  
That's it for now. I don't have strong feelings on tight ends this week.  Last week I made a few moves on my team just to bolster depth.  I added Fred Davis, Redskins TE, to back up Owen Daniels.  I actually have quite a few roster transactions set to go when the waiver wire opens up overnight.  I'll spell those out in next week's Fantasy lineup post.


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