Indianapolis Colts Should Not Draft Andrew Luck, And This Is Why

When the 2012 NFL Draft rolls around next April, the overall consensus #1 pick will be Andrew Luck from Stanford (if he comes out of college, that is; he still has a year of eligibility left).

Of the three teams that right now will be most likely to have that #1 pick, the Miami Dolphins seem a much more likely choice to select Luck than either the Indianapolis Colts or St. Louis Rams (who already have their franchise QB in Sam Bradford).  

However, even if the Colts do get that #1 draft spot, they should not take Luck.  Even if Peyton Manning is unable to fully recover from his neck surgery of a few months ago, they should not take Luck.  

Here are my reasons why:

• The Colts have shown that, as a whole, they are a terrible team.  
• They are ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 416 yards per game.  They are also allowing 32 points per game, which is a full 4 points more than the next worst team.
• They're dead last in allowing 3rd down conversions
• In rushing offense, they're ranked 23rd
• In passing offense, they're ranked 25th
• Coach Jim Caldwell bears some of the blame.  The Colts were 10-6 last year.  Outside of Peyton Manning being gone, this is pretty close to the team that was on the field last year.  They had four Pro Bowlers, two on offense (Manning, Reggie Wayne), and two on defense (Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis).  The Colts have some great players, but they're not being put in the right position to win.
• Despite this, there is still a lack of talent on the team.  Especially on defense.  The Colts are usually very conservative in the free agent market, choosing instead to build via the draft.  Of the 53-man roster, 34 players have three years of experience or less.    The Colts have to do a better job of drafting on defense.  
• If the Colts are in a position to take Luck, they should trade down for more draft picks.  The entire team needs an upgrade.  You can see how much Peyton Manning gives this team.  They're a playoff-caliber team with him there, but because of their deficiencies in all other areas, they're only a playoff-team; not a Super Bowl-ready team.  If Luck were to join the team, there's no guarantee that he'd be Peyton-quality for a few years.  They must acquire more draft picks and do a better job of grabbing talent.