Sunday, August 7, 2011

Trading In Fantasy Football: How To Not Destroy Your Team; Football Fantasy Primer, Pt. 4

Today's installment of my Fantasy Football Primer is about evaluating trade opportunities in your fantasy football league. Trades can be an invaluable way to strengthen a weak part of your team, or a way to offload a player that isn't doing well and still get something in return.

Trading in Fantasy can be tricky.  Depending on the league that you are in, your fellow team managers may be reluctant to trade away players that they've drafted and have become attached to.  The key is to identify a player who looks to be on the rise, before the other manager realizes his value.
I'm actually in a situation right now in my Keeper league where another manager has proposed a trade:

  • I give him: Tom Brady, Jamaal Charles
  • He gives me: Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson
It's a sticky situation for me.  I'm a bit of a gambler, and don't mind taking risks on players.  I actually think Romo is going to have a very good year (reports have been excellent in camp already), and I'm not a big Brady fan.  Likewise, I like Peterson more than Charles, but Peterson is older and there is an expiration date on running backs.  

But how would you go about trying to decide on your own team if a trade is a viable option? Let's look at some key points to figure out if a trade is a good idea:
  • Trading in fantasy usually follows the same main idea as trading in the stock market: Buy low, sell high; Meaning, trade that fantasy stud RB after his third or fourth amazing year, not after his first one.  For instance, this year might be a good time to offload a guy like Chris Johnson who has had three great seasons to open his career but who is going through a head coaching change and new quarterback again this year.  Add onto that a contract dispute where he has yet to go to training camp, and this all adds up to a potentially dangerous year for you if he's your #1 running back.
  • Utilize an online trade analyzer to see how you'd come out.  A free one can be found at Fantasy Sports Portal.  I used it to analyze the trade above, and it advised me to keep Brady and Charles.
  • Never be afraid to counter a trade with your own proposal if you're uneasy about it.  If the other manager is giving you a hard time, take a look at the rest of the team to see who he is protecting.  If there's someone that looks like a better option for your team, then modify the trade to include him. If the other manager was trying to scam you, then he'll back down quickly. If it's an honest trade, he'll give it some thought and you might actually build a better team.
  • Ask around your league if they think it's a good trade. I've surveyed several fantasy managers about my trade offer, and it's currently split 50:50 on what to do.  However, I've heard a number of good arguments for and against the trade, and it's helped me to make my decision.  I've decided to keep my guys for now.  My rationale is that because I'm in a Keeper league, Charles' value long-term is far greater than Peterson's.  I rate Brady's long-term value just above Romo's.
  • Okay, so not quite ready after looking over all the fantasy career stats, primarily where it concerns Charles and Peterson.  More thinking needs to be done before I decide.
Think I'm wrong? Please tell me in the comments. I have three days to finalize my decision on the trade.

Check Out The Rest Of My Football Primer:


FootBall Suicide Fantacy said...

Anyone ever heard of suicide fantasy football? i would like some feedback from people who have played.

Jules said...

Never played true suicide fantasy, but that seems like the ultimate challenge. I usually play two leagues a year, but I might have to dive into a suicide league this year.