Sunday, October 30, 2011

Tim Tebow Can't Compare to Matt Stafford, Or Even 2011 Rookie Quarterback Class

Anyone who watched today's game between the Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions saw a disparate tale of two first-round quarterbacks.

On one side, you have Matt Stafford, #1-overall pick of 2009, throwing for three touchdowns and racking up a 130.2 quarterback rating on 22 of 30 passes.

On the other side, you have Tim Tebow, the 25th pick of the first round in 2010, looking pretty lost at times while he threw for 172 yards on 18/39 passing with one touchdown, one interception, one fumble lost, and a qb rating of 56.8.

Both players came into the NFL after storied college careers (Stafford at Georgia, Tebow at Florida) where they looked competitive against each other on the field.  My, how times have changed.

The differences between Stafford and Tebow are far, far greater than about 24 picks in a first round.  It's becoming more and more clear that Tebow being drafted that high by Josh McDaniels when he was head coach of the Broncos was a terrible decision.  Stafford came into the league able to throw any pass right away, and while he had to fight through some difficult injuries the past two years, he's finally emerged healthy this year and able to play consistently.

Tebow, in his limited opportunities, has shown an inability to pass accurately short and long.  He's been inconsistently successful running the ball, and he appears to hold onto the ball far too long in the pocket.  Now he has been given a chance to start because Kyle Orton wasn't getting the job done, and the Denver fans wanted a change.  As a first round pick, Tebow needed to show what he's capable of doing.  What he's shown so far is not much.  Unfortunately, I don't see him getting that much better.

Tebow Compared To Rookie QBs

Look at the rookie quarterbacks starting right now and tell me which one of them is worse than Tebow right now: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, and Andy Dalton.  Now, consider 2009 sixth round pick Curtis Painter.

Is Tebow a better quarterback than any of these guys?  No, he's not.  I don't need to compare stats, either.  All of those guys have been able to move their teams on a fairly consistent basis and score.  A simple eyeball test tells you that they're more capable than Tebow.

I can understand if Denver uses Tebow in one more start, simply to give the kid another shot.  Typically, with "rookie" quarterbacks, teams will give them some leeway in terms of mistakes.  Mistakes are expected with inexperienced quarterbacks.  However, it's not so much Tebow's mistakes he's committing as it is the plays he's NOT making.

Denver can't score with Tebow.  Simple as that.  Once Denver can finally fully admit that Tebow isn't their guy, then it'll be time for yet another former first-round pick, Brady Quinn.  I actually think Quinn can be more effective than either Tebow or Orton simply because he'll take more chances.  I can see him throwing more interceptions than the other guys, but I'd be willing to bet that Quinn can move the offense more effectively.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Yep, pretty much nailed the analysis on Tebow. Not hard to see that the guy just doesn't have what it takes. Too bad... I kinda liked the thought of him coming in as the hero kid. I can't comment much on Quinn but I'm guessing he will not be the guy either.